We made it, fam. Half-way through an inaugural season, and halfway through summer. The Fire have already shown us every style of winning, and every style of losing. They are overperforming most expectations, they are building their systems, and they are making names for themselves as players and coaches. Unfortunately, they continue to show an inability to sustain a high level of competitiveness, winning back-to-back games just once this season. There is a lot of season to reflect on, and a lot of season left to preview.

Let’s do a bit of both.

The Fire are 11-16, and are 3.5 games out of a playoff spot, with an average strength of schedule ahead of them.  Out of 15 teams, they have the 10th best offense (by off. rating) and 13th best defense (by def. rating), giving them a 14th best net rating, ahead of only Connecticut. Their win-loss record is better than those stats, though, reminding us that this team has pulled out some amazing wins against teams that were playing better than them. A clutch team definitely resides in them, and they almost did it again in their last game before the All-Star break against a healthy Dallas team.

On offense, they shoot a ton of 3’s, they do not shoot a ton of free-throws, they make their shots at about an average rate, they turn it over more than all but two teams, they are not a good offensive rebounding team, and their pace of play is slower than average, despite stating that their identity would be one of the fastest teams in the league. Individually, Carla Leite is having a star-making year in her second season: 5th in the league in assists (on a per-minute basis), and 2nd in the league in free-throw attempts (on a per-minute basis), and is the team’s leading scorer. Bridget Carleton is one of the most prolific three-point shooters in the league (4th in the league in attempts/game), and has shown growth and potential in being a more creative scorer with the ball in her hands – though her usage has not risen very much so far this season (18.9% this season, 5th on the team). Megan Dileo (changed very recently from Megan Gustaffson) is having a breakout season as well with the increased opportunity, earning a starting spot and leading the team in PER by becoming a wildly efficient scorer (she has the 3rd best EFG% among qualified starters). Frieda Bühner is also riding a high right now, shooting 62.5% from three in her last five games.

On defense, they rebound poorly, they foul frequently, they get an average amount of steals and blocks, they force a healthy amount of turnovers, and they allow the most assists per game to opponents. Those numbers are disappointing, but there are advanced stats that show them being leaders in energy and pressure: they pick-up the ball-handler way sooner than most teams, they blitz pick-and-rolls more frequently than most teams, they help off other defenders more than most teams. Individually, Emily Engstler has been a standout defender, leading the league almost all season in blocks per game alongside the reigning Defensive Player of the Year Aja Wilson (Engstler is currently 5th in this stat). Nyadiew Puoch started the season as a ferocious on-ball defender, taking on the opponents’ best guards every night (though she has moved off of that role as she has moved to the bench). Bridget Carleton remains a good help defender, and typically has a size advantage in her role, but her defensive numbers do not leap off the page like Engstler’s.

The Fire came into the season with a first-time coach that laid out the identity that he wanted his team to have: fast, disruptive, selective shots, hard-working, and deep. So far, the team plays pretty slow; the defense started the season very disruptive, but has become much less so; they have good shot selection, they work hard, and they are deep. Three-for-five isn’t bad, but those two missed qualities are affecting the team’s win column. Changes to these systems, and changes to individual players, take a long time, and will show only in glimpses from game to game. We have seen a slightly improved pace already, and I have seen and heard enough from this coaching staff to think that they are working hard on finding ways to improve across these fronts. But the staff has also admitted that some areas of the game – specifically rebounding – can only really be addressed by making changes to the roster, which they are not going to rush into.

Looking ahead, the most important factor in the Fire’s success from here on out is the awful news that Sarah Ashlee Barker is going to miss the rest of the season after an ACL injury in last week’s Dallas game. Barker was one of the team’s best rebounders, a quick-trigger 3-point shooter, the team’s best secondary ball-handler, a strong defender, and seemingly limitlessly clutch. The loss is a big step back in power-level for the team. In thinking about potential solutions, I would expect to see S.A.’s starting spot go to Nyadiew Puoch, who began the season starting games, and started a game two weeks ago when Sarah missed a game for her brother’s wedding. That leaves a spot open on the bench unit, which could be filled by two people: Luisa Geiselsoder or Jordan Harrison.

Geiselsoder has been struggling, and has barely played since June. Harrison is on a developmental contract, and can only play in something like 8 or 9 more games this season (there are 17 games remaining). Neither option is a perfect fit for the position that Puoch played, and both potential replacements have better players in their respective roles already doing well: Serah Williams and Teja Oblak. The Fire have stuck to their 10-player rotation system all season, and I would expect that to continue. With the game limitations, and her physical and role-playing limitations, I do not expect Harrison to be the answer, here, which means Lui probably gets the chance to play through her hardships.

With a season-ending injury occurring, the Fire have unlocked the option to sign a new player, which is a fascinating opportunity for a front-office that hasn’t shown us how they like to operate in these scenarios. The most recent move that group made was to sign second-year forward/center Sania Feagin to a development position, who would have brought a skill-set that the Fire did not have on their roster and were desperately looking for: interior defense and shot-blocking. I thought the move was smart, opportunistic, and future-focused, which is what you want a new team to be. An injury prevented that transaction from seeing any action, as Feagin also suffered a season-ending ACL injury – though remains on/with the team as the Fire aim to be one of the best staffs in the league for guiding players through injury recovery.

Signing a free-agent is just one of the roster-building tools still available to the Fire, as trades are still allowed for just one more week (the deadline is August 2nd). Just like in-season signings, we haven’t really seen an in-season trade. The only trade the team has performed, technically, was trading Chloe Bibby and Maya Caldwell in separate transactions that were mostly ways to part ways with those two players instead of outright cutting them. Predicting trades is always a farce in sports fandom, though I usually partake in those silly games regardless. I’m having trouble doing so for this team, because having watched each player log hundreds of minutes this season has allowed me to see the upside in each of them, and trading them any single one of them would emotionally surprise me. I know sports are businesses, and players are assets to be bargained with, but I’m enjoying the process of this first season so much that I can’t bring myself to predict anyone getting traded, nor do I desire that anyone be traded. Additionally, this front-office group does not give me the impression that they would make a massively meaningful trade in the middle of their first season (I am wondering, however, if Toronto, the other expansion team, might make a real move 👀).

I will predict that the Fire will, at most, sign a replacement player after a season-ending injury, will continue at about the same win % pace they have been at, or take a step back with the injury to S.A., and the season is going to turn into pure internal development in the next couple weeks as a playoff birth continues to become less likely.

But Portland has beaten some of the best teams in the league already this season, and remain outwardly interested in winning right now, and making the playoffs right now. Many people wrote them off entirely, and were proven immediately ill-informed. We are informed, now, of the potential lurking inside this team., and I would be foolish to think this team can’t go on a run of success in the second half.

As with all things, only time will tell.

See you on Tuesday for the start of the second half.

Head Coach Alex Sarama remains open to sharing ideas and philosophies and ideas, and was on the most recent episode of The Dunker Spot, a twice-weekly basketball podcast that covers the W as well as the MNBA.