It is historically probable that the Portland Fire will not win enough games in their inaugural season to earn a top-8 spot in the league and qualify for the post-season. Only one expansion team has ever done so: 2025’s Golden State Valkyries. For reference, here is every other expansion teams’ inaugural season records:

Year Team – Wins-Losses

1998 Washington Mystics – 3-27

1998 Detroit Shock – 17-15

1999 Minnesota Lynx – 15-17

1999 Orlando Miracle (now the Connecticut Sun) – 15-17

2000 Seattle Storm – 6-26

2000 Indiana Fever – 9-23

2000 Portland Fire (original) – 10-22

2000 Miami Sol – 10-22

2006 Chicago Sky – 5-29

2008 Atlanta Dream – 4-30

2025 Golden State Valkyries – 23-21 (made playoffs)

Only two of eleven expansion teams (18.2%) have finished with a .500 record or better. Expanding is hard! Especially in 2026, when sports have more resources and information and analysis than ever, and when the WNBA brings in two new teams in the same season.

But recent history has shown it is possible, the Fire’s GM Vanja Černivec was second-in-command on the only team that did it, and Portland has surprised the league multiple times already.

So, what would it take?

(If you want a TL;DR then, yeah, fine, you can skip to the bottom, but ballknowers think through their problems and solutions 🧠)

It will take four things, most likely: first, the Fire need to be as good as they have been, but honestly they need to be better; second, they need the teams that sit behind them in the standings to continue their struggles; third, and least predictable, is that they need teams above them to start struggling. And fourth: they need to beat every team in their “last one in” tier. Let’s talk about each:

1. The Fire need to be as good, or better, than they have been. The interesting thing about their spot in the standings right now is that 😬 they haven’t even played that well, overall, to earn the spot they’re in 😬. They are 10th in the standings, but 13th in net rating with the worst defensive rating in the league. There have been fluky losses that skew those numbers, but the real fluke of the season has been Portland being the best clutch team in the entire league.

There is a stat called Pythagorean wins and losses, which is based on points scored and points allowed, which has the Fire being a 5-12 team, good for 13th by that stat. Luckily, that stat is theoretical, and the Fire have pulled out wins that they theoretically should not have. That is a skill that they have shown us multiple times this season, and it is one that is hard to find and hard to develop. Portland already has it. That bodes well for them, especially considering that they are hitting their biggest pockets of practice of the season, and should improve, even if just marginally.

Additionally, the Fire have one of the easier remaining schedules in the league, calculated by remaining opponents’ collective winning percentage. They have a game against Connecticut left, three games against Seattle, two against the Sky next week, and two against Phoenix, who are all currently below them in the standings.

2. Portland needs the teams that are behind them to stay behind them. Let’s check in on who those teams are right now:

The difference between Portland’s record and these other teams’ records seems large, but we aren’t even half-way through the season yet, so we cannot count anyone out of the race yet (at least mathematically). The Fire have won all of their games against Connecticut (2-0) and Seattle (1-0), which is exactly what they need to be doing, but let’s first focus on the other two teams: Phoenix and Chicago.

Both of these teams have veteran talent that surpasses Portland’s: Phoenix’s Alyssa Thomas and Kahleah Copper, and Chicago’s Skylar Diggins and Natasha Cloud, just to name a few. Also, both of these teams have beaten Portland already – Chicago with a full strength team, and Phoenix while sitting those two veterans I just named. That Phoenix loss, at home, is going to go down as the worst loss of the season for Portland, I am thinking. A silly loss, indeed.

Chicago and Phoenix are built to win right now, and they could both make moves or make internal improvements to start jumping back up the standings. Portland will need to win some games against them for tiebreaker possibilities, and because they are theoretically easier wins than most this season (at least for everyone else they have been).

Let’s take a short break to check-in on what the tiebreaker situation is for the WNBA standings, and making the playoffs. I have a feeling they could come into play:

3. Portland needs a team above them to start struggling. This is always wishful thinking, but let’s take a quick look anyways:

Let’s save those bottom three teams for the next section, and instead focus on the top 7, and let’s do it by asking if any team is susceptible to three primary reasons a team might start to struggle:

Minnesota? Dude, they’ve been the best team in the league while playing 0 games with their best player available. They’re not going anywhere. Las Vegas? They have the reigning MVP, two more All-Star level players, they have more experience winning than anyone, they have been great all season, and their only troubles have been potential behind-the-scenes/playtime issues with one bench player that seems to have been resolved. They’re not going anywhere. Atlanta? I actually do think there is a bit of a depth issue, and a major injury could change their season, but they also have Bri Jones, a very talented F/C that hasn’t played yet this season still on the way. Their season has been rock solid, and they  are genuinely as good as they’ve shown. They’re not going anywhere. New York? They have lost a couple wonky games this season (including 2 against the Fire lol), but they have had availability issues all season, too. When they finally got Leonie Fiebich back from Europe, they won 8 games in a row! Sabrina Ionescu has yet to play consistently, and Satou Sabally is just now getting into form after missing a ton of time. They potentially have the most talent in the league on their roster. They’re not going anywhere.

Now we can start talking ourselves into some things. Dallas? They sat Paige against the Fire and took an L. They had their coach call out their roster for selfishness after like 3 games. They have not found a center rotation that they trust yet. But their overall talent is immense, and if anything, they’ve played a bit worse than what I would have expected. There is volatility here, but a ton of upside. They are a team to keep eyes on 👀. Golden State? They have been playing great, and they only have one loss that doesn’t track on paper against Chicago. They are deep, they have one of the strongest identities in the league, and they made the playoffs last season as an expansion team. But they don’t have an obvious MVP-candidate type of player (I’m genuinely not trying to throw shade, here, because Gabby and Veronica and Kayla are stellar), which makes me wonder what would happen if an important injury were to occur. Maybe they have been playing bigger than their britches so far, but they have shown no issues, either. They are strong as hell, but still a team to keep eyes on 👀. Indiana? Now we’re talking, folks. Locker room, media, and injury troubles already this season to go along with losses that are tough for them to swallow from the Fire and from Washington. They are capable of greatness, as they showed last season making the semi-finals without Caitlin Clark, but they are looking unreliable this season, and they, importantly, already lost to Portland.

It seems like the top four teams are secure in their place in the playoffs, with the middle of the pack teams having some room for error.

4. Finally, the Fire need to beat every team in their “last one in” tier. That’s Washington, Los Angeles, and Toronto. Let’s look at each, using the same criteria from above:

Washington? They have good upside skill at every position, but any significant injury would really slow them down. They have shown some great fight already this season, and it has looked sustainable. I have not seen any signs of trouble from their team, either. But they are young – the youngest team in the league – and that inexperience is tough to take through a season into the playoffs. Portland has what it takes to finish better than them. Los Angeles? They have a lot of talent and experience on the roster, and are built to win now. They have had some losses they shouldn’t have, however, and they already have important players missing time, most notably Kelsey Plum, who has sat with two different injuries already, and Cam Brink is recovering for a couple of weeks. The Fire got smoked by them in a game already, but it was a game that Portland could not have shot worse in, and one in which they showed great fight. Things have been shaky, and I think Portland has what it takes to finish better than them. Toronto?

Toronto gets their own paragraph, just because I’m so stoked that the two expansion teams are battling to get into the playoffs. Both of them getting in would be one of the most improbable things to happen in sports in, I don’t know, ever? Toronto is hitting a stretch of bad injury luck right now, with Kiki Rice missing games and now Brittney Sykes with a foot injury is going to miss multiple weeks. The team has shown high highs, but also low lows. We know what that looks like, as expansion team followers. I expect the volatility to continue. Importantly, the Fire have already won in Toronto, though they have a second away game against the Tempo after playing them at home first. Finally, the Tempo have one of the hardest remaining schedules in the entire league, playing 3 games each against Las Vegas, Atlanta, Dallas, and Golden State. Portland has what it takes to finish better than them.

But what could get in the Fire’s way?

Right now, the Washington Mystics are getting in the Fire’s way. The Mystics have won three of their last four games, including a wonderful win against New York in their last match. When I started writing and math-ing the piece out, Washington was comfortably behind the Fire in post-season outlook. But any win, or any loss, this early in the season, can still change the script. Washington is the youngest team in the league, which means they lack experience, but they have energy and they have a fearlessness that inexperience can provide. Portland has all three matchups against the Mystics in front of them.

Injuries can always get in the way. Portland has mostly avoided these so far, save an ankle turn here and there. Thankfully, the Fire organization has a big emphasis on playing the entire roster, distributing minutes across the roster more evenly than any other team, and on getting players rest, and keeping all players available. Anything can happen, obviously, but the Fire could be on the luckier, more fortunate side of the injury bug with their team’s emphasis.

Of course, as we have already seen, the Fire can get in their own way. They have two of the three worst turnover games in the entire season so far; they have the worst defensive rating in the league; we have seen them be the coldest shooting team in the league in some games. This is what expansion teams do, and why they historically do not make the playoffs, or even just win a lot of games (though Portland is already the 8th winningest expansion team ever 👀).

Quickly, before our guesses and answers, let’s take a look at how many wins it has taken to qualify for the playoffs in the W in the last couple seasons:

In 2025, the Golden State Valkyries and Seattle Storm were tied for the worst record to get into the playoffs. They were both 23-21, a 52.3% win percentage. Notably, this was the first time since 2020 that the worst team that makes the playoffs has a winning record. Every other team in the last five seasons that was the last team into the playoffs had a losing record:

2025: Golden State/Seattle, 23-21 (52.3%)

2024: Atlanta Dream, 15-25 (37.5%)

2023: Chicago Sky, 18-22 (45%)

2022: Phoenix Mercury, 15-21 (41.7%)

2021: New York Liberty, 12-20 (37.5%)

The league has literally gotten bigger (more teams, bigger rosters), and also gotten better. The average win % of these teams is 42.8%, which would be about 19 wins. With the bigger and better league, let’s push that to 20 as a presumed minimum amount of wins that will be making the playoffs. But looking at the current standings, the last team in is Washington with a 8-7 record, who are on pace to win 23.5 games. We just made the case that Washington, and the teams below them, could linger or get worse the rest of the way, but that still bumps our minimum required wins to at least 22, I would think.

So, let’s keep the number (22 wins) in our heads moving forward.

Okay, enough already. Answer the damn question:

Unequivocally: yes.

They have shown a knack for winning in big moments, they have three wins against top-5 teams already, they have more rest than any other team the rest of the season, and before Washington won two games in a row, Portland had the 3rd easiest remaining schedule in the league.

Looking ahead down the schedule, and using our 22 wins number, the Fire can win 22 games if they beat every team currently below them in the standings plus their games against Washington, Los Angeles, and Toronto (they would have to go 14-0 in those games lol). They wouldn’t necessarily need to beat another top-5 team to make it in.

But, there is a more fun question and answer that you are probably here for:

As objectively as I can look at it:

Damn, a surprise second bullet point for Portland, and a negative one at that. Sorry for the jump scare.

I won’t say yes or no to the “will” question, but I will put an educated % guess on it.

I believe the Fire have Carla Leite’s current 3P% (39.3%) chance to make the playoffs.

Is that a huge vote of confidence? Not really. Is that a great 3P%? Yes, it’s very good. Is it a great place to be for an expansion team? Unequivocally: yes.

You can find all Strength of Schedule stuff at https://www.tankathon.com/wnba/remaining-schedule-strength