The Fire lost their third game in a row, and are 0-3 in Commissioner’s Cup games. This loss was a notable one in the ways in which it unraveled, and it’s a good opportunity to talk about the state of basketball and the state of the Fire.

So, let’s talk about it.

These are an old set of standardized “only stats that matter”. Here’s a fun explainer video from Molly Brown on Instagram, who is going to be a great follow for any fan of my writing here: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DXusixFkrAA/

Sorry for missing the previous game! I am enjoying digging into numbers and film during this losing streak, because it is revealing a lot. I hope I can sum-up some of my findings soon. Let’s look at this Los Angeles game:

This was the worst shooting game for the Fire this season.

…

Okay, actually, this is hilarious. This felt like the worst shooting game of the year for the Fire this season, but in fact, they have shot worse from the field in four other games, and I can’t believe it, but they won their three worst shooting games of the season.

Ok, despite that unfortunate lack of evidence, this game had the biggest disparity between two important metrics in modern basketball: field goal percentage, and shot quality.

Unfortunately, I don’t have the money or the connections to have access to statistics databases that literally track shot quality, but it is a metric that takes into effect how valuable each shot is (3 points, 2 points, 1 point), how far away the nearest defender is (a.k.a. was it a wide open shot, an open shot, or a contested shot), and how the good the shooter is at making those shots. It is a way to measure if your offense is “taking good shots”.

This is a tricky stat these days, as it is a crutch for many offenses – in the W and in the MNBA – to play in such a way that you have the best shot quality possible. But when your team is cold, and missing shots, you just need other methods of production: gritty, hard-fought buckets that are unorthodox, ill-advised, but well-timed. In the most recent and hilarious example of this, in the MNBA, the Cleveland Cavaliers just got swept by the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Finals, but the head coach of the Cavs had the gall to explain that his team actually had the better shot quality in the series by far, so it actually should have been a 3-1 lead for Cleavland.

I’m sorry, brother, but I learned a quote from a different sport that applies aptly here: men lie, women lie, buckets don’t.

The Fire, in their game in L.A., produced great open shots. Almost none of them went in. Who did they turn to when things weren’t going their way? They turned to:

And that’s about it in terms of players who get the ball in their hands and look to make something different happen. You’ll notice Bridget Carleton is not on my list, and that is intentional. I’ll save that analysis for another time, but as I’ve said before: her game is historically, and still currently, shaped around running around screens and getting the ball in motion from the point-guard. She won’t demand the ball and try to beat players one-on-one, even if her ability to get buckets in those scenarios is strong.

The Fire want to take the types of shots they were taking in this game. Obviously, they want to make more of them. This game revealed where some players need to pump fake and dribble out of these shots, and where others need to take their shots with more confidence and less hesitation. They need to win closeouts at a higher rate – when a player catches a pass in a position to shoot a three, and their defender is running at them to contest the shot (running at a shooting player to stop their shot is a “closeout”), the Fire need to act with more decisiveness and confidence, which can result in open shots, fouls, or defensive rotations, which themselves can result in more passes to wide-open players all over the court.

The Fire’s pace isn’t good enough. Carla Leite is left dribbling the air out of the ball on a lot of possessions, where the other four players wait for someone to have an idea about what play to run. Additionally, the only person trying to push the ball in transition, to quickly attack after a rebound or a steal, is Emily Engstler. And since she’s the only one trying, it can look like she’s on a different page and out in her own universe, but she’s good at it, and the team has explicitly explained that they want this to be part of the game. It’s a fascinating inter-team strategic clash that is bearing out in front of us. I think we’ll see some changes here as the Fire hit some of their pockets of off-time this season.

Bridget Carleton and the coaching staff need to find ways to increase her usage. She is currently 5th on the team in usage rate behind Carla Leite and Teja Oblak (point guards who should lead the team in this), Meg Gustafson, and Sarah Ashlee Barker. The latter two are secondary and tertiary finishers who touch the ball (theoretically) way less than Carleton, but they make quicker and more decisive decisions than Carleton does. Bridget is still figuring out how to attack her defender with the ball in her hands, and she’s still figuring out how to navigate the many screens and actions that the team runs for her, but she should not be getting less shots as the season goes on, which is currently the case – the last three losses are games in which Carleton had the least field-goal attempts of her season (6 shots, 9 shots, and just 4 shots in this game).

Portland needs to learn how to struggle. Their shot generation was great, and their shooting was terrible. How do you respond? The game is frustrating and no one can break out of it. What then? And the most frustrating thing I saw in this game was the response of yapping, chirping, yelling, and complaining to/at the referees. Yeah, the refs seemed to be missing a good amount of calls, but the fouls were dead even in the game, and they are just humans performing a job; placing your attention on them is a waste, and the Fire were wasting a lot of their attention in this game. When your stuff isn’t good, you need to learn how to move forward. The Fire have room to grow, here.

The Fire, after winning the first game they started Meg, had gotten away from a straight pick-and-roll where Gustafson rolled to the basket and Portland simply gave her the ball. Her ability to finish around the rim is the reason the team has started playing her way more. This game, they finally got back to it a little bit, and it was the only reliable version of offense. Meg didn’t have the most efficient night (6-of-13 from the floor, including 0-for-2 from three), but she was the only one attacking confidently and hitting anything. Portland doesn’t want her leading the team in shot attempts, but when everyone is struggling, someone needs to show some oomph. Meg did it against L.A.

Another tough loss that felt winnable. It is a great time, and a great opportunity to reflect, ourselves, as fans. Where are our expectations? How have they changed after those 6 awesome wins? How have they changed now? Are our assumptions just blowing in the wind, like the Fire’s ability to play consistently game-to-game?

This is an expansion team. They’re playing a tough stretch of opponents. They haven’t had a real break to hold practices in weeks. As of the night of the L.A. game, they had played more games than any other team in the league. The supposed superpower of the organization is going to be its practicing and training and learning and growing.

There is much to be seen, much learning to do, and many wins still ahead of us.

(But maybe not when Aja Wilson and Paige Bueckers come to town next)

Have questions? Submit them through the link below, and I’ll answer them periodically!

Points per Possession - how many points a team scores for every possession they have

Effective Field-Goal Percent (eFG%) - field goal percentage with weight added to three-point shots

Turnover Percent (TOV%) - percent of possessions that ended in a turnover

Offensive Rebound Percent (OREB%) - percent of a team’s own misses that they rebounded

Free-Throw Attempt Rate (FTA Rate) - how many free throws a team takes for each Field Goal attempted