After a short break from games, and a couple of practices, Portland played their best game in two weeks – since their win against the Fever. But a single critical element was completely dominated by the Aces, and gave Las Vegas a 28-2 advantage in a game they only won by 16.

Let’s talk about it.

These are an old set of standardized “only stats that matter”. Here’s a fun explainer video from Molly Brown on Instagram, who is going to be a great follow for any fan of my writing here: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DXusixFkrAA/

Our Four Factors can leave a lot out of the conversation when we look at the statistical results of games, but let’s note that both teams shot incredibly well (any eFG above 55% is very good)and neither team turned it over too much. The FTA rate looks like a big advantage for Las Vegas, and it was, but I don’t think the calls going against the Fire were suspicious or unwarranted. The real issue there, and it has been a struggle for a couple of games now, is that Portland cannot find out how to draw fouls, despite Carla Leie’s best and constant efforts.

But the number of the day comes from offensive rebounds, where WNBA stats estimates that the Aces collected over 50% of the offensive rebounds that were available to them. It is the third highest rate in the league this season, and it resulted in 17 offensive rebounds for the Aces. The Fire? They had 19 total rebounds. This was only the 8th time ever in the W that those two numbers were accomplished.

Offensive rebounds don’t always lead to points, but for the Aces, they did: this was the 28-2 deficit I mentioned in the intro: 28 2nd chance points for Las Vegas, and 12 for Chelsea Gray, who was 6/7 from three in the first half alone, and who walked into several open shots, mostly after the team secured an offensive rebound.

Here are 3 possessions from the first quarter that show the struggle for Portland. These are 3 possessions in a row where Las Vegas got an offensive rebound (there is actually a 4th possession in the middle of these where Vegas got an o-rebound, but they committed an offensive foul and gave the ball back).

This is an issue that has been with the Fire all season, and is one that the coaches and players have addressed multiple times already. But, as they have also noted, this disadvantage is one that is largely solved with grit and grr and determination rather than acute skill development. You simply gotta want it. Portland is a team that wants to win with energy and effort, but also efficiency and possession advantages. If you want to affect the game, you need to have the ball. The other team literally throws the ball away in order to try and get points (a.k.a. Shooting the basketball), and the Fire are watching the ball bounce around the court instead of having all 5 players attempt to go get the damn thing. It is genuinely: not what you want.

Overall, this was pretty simply an expansion team playing a good game versus the defending champions playing a good game. The difference between the two groups’ everyday good play is a 15 point gap. Portland was certainly playing well enough to win this game, but Vegas is capable of fending off any teams’ good games for a win.

Watching A’ja Wilson get to any spot she wants and take any shot she wants, both with extreme ease, was illuminating. Everyone agrees she is the best player in the world, but you really don’t know what that looks or feels like until you are in the same room with her. 32 points on 20 shots, shot 13 free throws, a +24 in the game. Nasty work.

Chelsea Gray facilitated and hit every open shot: 9/13 from three, 10/15 overall, 29 points and +17. Jackie Young had the ball on a string, and almost notched a triple-double and she really showed the Fire’s lack of rebounding as the Aces shortest player grabbed 8 rebounds to go with 10 assists and 18 points. Sheesh.

The Fire had 4 players score in double digits, had a really balanced attack, and their bench was excellent. Portland’s backups scored 20 points compared to Vegas’ 6. Portland played 11 players, making the tactical shift to bring in Serah Williams, who hasn’t played since the Golden State game. Frieda Bühner has been playing the backup 4 position, but that left her guarding Vegas’ Nalyssa Smith, who is way bigger and stronger than Bühner, and it was not going great for the German forward, though she played a fine game. Williams came in and gave great energy, and continues to show real skill with the ball in the paint, hitting her only shot with some craft. She was +10 in just 5 minutes.

Teja Oblak had another great backup point guard performance, 9 points on 60% shooting with 6 assists in 11 minutes. Meg Gustafson had another efficient scoring game against her old team, scoring 17.

The Fire’s new starting lineup continues to take a beating. In numbers alone, this group had been bleeding points in the games since Sarah Ashlee Barker was placed into the starting lineup for Nyadiew Puoch. In their last four games, the lineup of Leite, Barker, Carleton, Engstler, and Gustafson have played 500% more minutes than any other lineup while having a net rating of -42.9. That would be worse than any lineup in the league so far this season. This is coming during the hardest stretch of games for the Fire, so it is unfair to cherry pick these numbers without that context, but I do think the Fire lose some versatility with the starting lineup change, even if I agree that those 5 players are the strongest so far. I wonder if we’ll see any more changes during this stretch.

The Fire’s competitive advantage is practicing. Coach Alex Saram continues to say it all the time, and results continue to bear it out. I think a ton of basketball fans would be shocked to learn how infrequently teams have actual practice throughout their seasons, and the Fire went a while without them. They had two before this Aces game, and it showed: their offensive sets were cleaner and more efficient, their fast-break/transition offense improved after it really struggled in the last couple games.

The Fire are slowly morphing towards a more-standard rotation. They still play 10 players every game, which is more than any other team, but in this game, and others, their starting 5 are playing more minutes than average, and the bench players are playing less. Their strategy of running hard with 10 players and a lot of subbing has admittedly lost some effectiveness, and I wonder how conscious this shift towards standardization is. I’m enjoying the differences in strategy and philosophy this team has, and I hope they don’t morph too closely into just another team.

Outside of the referees never giving Carla calls in this and other recent games, this was a nearly perfect performance (zero turnovers!!!) from the French guard, who had a couple choppy games previously. Her middy was sharp, she was dicing up the defense, and her passing was way better than in the other losses. It is her second game of the season with 18+ points and 8+ assists.

The tough games continue as Dallas comes to town today. With that short break earlier this week, Portland should have had time to develop a nice scout and gameplan for the Wings, who have been good this season and who, I think, can also be way better than they have been. The Fire should matchup better defensively, but can they make a change to stop giving away rebounds in their 36 hours off? I sure hope so.

Have questions? Submit them through the link below, and I’ll answer them periodically!

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Points per Possession - how many points a team scores for every possession they have

Effective Field-Goal Percent (eFG%) - field goal percentage with weight added to three-point shots

Turnover Percent (TOV%) - percent of possessions that ended in a turnover

Offensive Rebound Percent (OREB%) - percent of a team’s own misses that they rebounded

Free-Throw Attempt Rate (FTA Rate) - how many free throws a team takes for each Field Goal attempted