Portland and Seattle played their first game in 23 years, and it was a thriller the entire way. Portland was up 9, then Seattle was up 11, then it was back-and-forth until the last few minutes, when the Fourth Quarter Fire returned to form.

Let’s talk about it.

These are an old set of standardized “only stats that matter”. Here’s a fun explainer video from Molly Brown on Instagram, who is going to be a great follow for any fan of my writing here: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DXusixFkrAA/

The Fire launched 42 three-pointers last night, which only one other team has done this season (Indiana, who did it in an overtime game), and they made 17 of them, good for second-highest in a game in the league this season (unfortunately, the team that made 18? Golden State, against Portland on June 2nd 🤪). In the history of the league, there have now been 6 games with 42 threes attempted, and only two games ever that had more: Las Vegas took 45 in a game last season, and Phoenix took 50 (!!!) in a double-overtime game in 2022.

Importantly, these 42 three’s were mostly coming in the flow of the offense, and were mostly good shots. Unlike the Los Angeles game on June 7th, the threes in this game looked good and went in. The Storm made more shots tonight than Portland, but the Fire made 8 more threes and made 7 more free-throws. Shot quality, shot diet, whatever we want to call it, is exemplified in games like this. A reporter called it out in a question in the post-game with coach Sarama: Portland shot under 40% from the field, got outscored 40-18 in the paint, and still pulled out a win. This game was won on the margins, and also won with grit and resilience.

Both teams’ stars were on heaters, making for a wonderful initial grudge match, and both stars have very different playing profiles: Dominique Malonga was a beast in the paint, scoring a career-high 28 points along with 11 rebounds. Only Aliyah Boston (once) and A’ja Wilson (thrice) have gotten those numbers this season. Dom shot 63%, threw 3 assists, had 5 stocks (steals and blocks), and just 1 turnover. There has been exactly one other game in the history of the W where a player had all those numbers or better: A’ja Wilson (of course) last year against the Sparks. On the Fire’s side, Bridget Carleton broke her own record that she set four days prior by making 7 threes, a new career high. She’s our Bucket-Getter, so we’ll cover her game more at the end.

I’ll admit it: I really like Seattle’s team. Natisha Hiedeman (19 points, ⅝ from three) (go Golden Eagles!!) is a bonafide savvy vet; Flau’jae Johnson (8 points, 57% shooting, +8) is like 18 years old and somehow also a bonafide savvy vet (she’s 22, a rookie, and very good already); Dom Malonga and Awa Fam (18 points, 5 rebounds, 60% shooting) are physical talents we’ve barely ever seen before, and they are huge, and they look like they can share the floor at the same time and be staggered to hold things down themselves. I think Jade Melbourne (8 assists) is going to be one of the best backup point guards in the league, but I don’t think having her start in a three-guard lineup, like Seattle did last night, is ideal. They could use a wing player that can take and make a bunch of threes (every team could), but they are poised to be a high-floor team for a long time.

The Fire continue to tinker with their lineups, including what I think is a massive change that I will talk about in our Takeaways. Their bench outscored Seattle’s 21-10, with Karlie Samuelson (who matched up against her sister Katie Lou Samuelson tonight!) who knocked in 10, including a momentous three with a hand in her face in the 3rd quarter. The bench overall did not have a good night, especially early on when they came in and Seattle scored around 10 unanswered points to end the first quarter. But they bounced back and played much better in their stint to end the third quarter, setting up the starters to make another 4th quarter comeback. The Fire are now 6-1 in clutch games (games that are within 5 points in the final 5 minutes of the game), the best win rate and most clutch wins in the league.

Carla Leite had her second double-double of her season and career, scoring 20 points with 10 assists; it was her career high Game Score*. Emily Engstler had another classic: 8 points, 6 rebounds, 5 assists (!!), and 3 stocks (steals and blocks); she continues to create big plays in big moments, even if it doesn’t involve scoring. Though this game, it did involve scoring! She got the smooth fade-away midrange jumper that gave the Fire their final lead, and made the pass that put the final nail in the coffin.

The Fire benched Luisa Geiselsoder in this game. She was not on the injury report, which means she was healthy. She was dressed to play, she participated in warmups, and then she sat the entire night.

I both understand some logistics behind a move like this and also feel shocked that this move happened. Let’s start with the shock:

The Fire are about to start their longest break of the season, which would be the perfect time to think through, practice, and communicate a big play-time decision like this. To bench your day 1 starter during a one-day break before a much larger break seems odd! Additionally, this Seattle game was, on paper, very winnable, and if the Fire want to win (which they very much do), making a big roster change without having practiced it does not seem like the strategy to employ to win that game. I know that Lui (Luisa) has been trending downward statistically, and there may be other things going on that we can’t see, but she is still bigger, stronger, more experienced, and plays the Fire systems more fluidly than Serah Williams, who was Lui’s replacement tonight. This is not shade against Williams, this is writing in support of Lui, who the Fire expansion drafted pretty early, and who was very much designed to be an integral part of the team.

Here’s why it makes some sense: In the Fire’s last 9 games (about half of the games they’ve played so far), the team has their lowest offensive rating and second worst defensive rating when Geiselsoder is on the floor. Their pace and rebounding are also lower when Lui plays. It hasn’t been the best stretch of her career. Serah Williams, in much more limited time, is seeing a much better defensive rating, and when you track stats by possession is the best rebounder on the team. Going against the two-headed Seattle monster in Malonga and Fam, changing your lineups to have your best statistical rebounder on the floor is a sensible change. There is an offensive trade-off, but the Fire were willing to make it.

Did the change work? This is small sample-size theatre, but it both did and didn’t. Williams was -7 in her 12 minutes, with 1 point and 4 rebounds (2 offensive rebounds), and she was 0/1 from the field shooting. Her offensive and defensive ratings were worse than Luisa’s have been the last 9 games, but Williams had the best rebounding % in this game for the Fire. She was, by some measures, the least effective player in the game for Portland, but the rebounding worked, and they got a young big some quality minutes against two players she’s going to go against for the rest of her career. Plus, the Fire won the game!

More than the effectiveness of the change, I am shocked by how suddenly the Fire made a big roster decision, just like I was shocked by the Fire changing their starting line-up to include Sarah Ashlee Barker, whose energy off the bench and whose ability to out-work everyone in the fourth quarter were attributes I did not think needed changing. I am learning that the Fire are not precious about their starting lineups, and they frequently talk about giving the “why”s to their players, so I’m going to temper my surprise, especially in the face of success, small as it is.

That said: I believe in Lui.

Carleton was in attack mode tonight, putting in (a stat that I can’t actually track) her quickest catch-and-shoot release times across an entire game this season. She hit her first 3 three’s, and that hot start clearly encouraged her to continue. 100% of her shots were threes, which is pretty fascinating, she scored in every quarter, and scored 11 in the fourth to help seal the game, including the dagger three off of a wonderful drive and kick action from Emily Engstler (the last play in the video below):

The Fire get a well-deserved six days off before they play another game, and go on their second road trip of the season. I assume there will be several practices throughout, and hopefully we get some nice sound-bites from those. Seems like a great time for season-wide and league-wide speculation for Fire fans. What would you like to know more about? Let me know in the link below!

Have questions? Submit them through the link below, and I’ll answer them periodically!

https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLSehNt8_EhXpWW7nvePd8eL5ZiXFe54l-DTyr74sH6n6l3RaKQ/viewform?usp=header

Points per Possession - how many points a team scores for every possession they have

Effective Field-Goal Percent (eFG%) - field goal percentage with weight added to three-point shots

Turnover Percent (TOV%) - percent of possessions that ended in a turnover

Offensive Rebound Percent (OREB%) - percent of a team’s own misses that they rebounded

Free-Throw Attempt Rate (FTA Rate) - how many free throws a team takes for each Field Goal attempted

* Game Score - the formula is PTS + 0.4 FG - 0.7 FGA - 0.4*(FTA - FT) + 0.7 ORB + 0.3 DRB + STL + 0.7 AST + 0.7 BLK - 0.4 * PF - TOV. Game Score was created by John Hollinger to give a rough measure of a player's productivity for a single game. The scale is similar to that of points scored, (40 is an outstanding performance, 10 is an average performance, etc.).