The Portland Fire ended their first-ever road trip with a game in New York against a struggling Liberty team. The Fire’s offense was stuck in the mud for much of the game, but they brought New York in the mud with them. A huge outburst in the 4th quarter, with two more clutch shots to add to the Fire’s growing collection, and just like that the Fire win their first series of the season, fly back home with a winning road trip, and have a record above .500 for the first time.

These are an old set of standardized “only stats that matter”. Here’s a fun explainer video from Molly Brown on Instagram, who is going to be a great follow for any fan of my writing here: https://www.instagram.com/reel/DXusixFkrAA/

Let’s start by managing and aligning our expectations and reactions to the realities of the game on Monday: the Fire have never been healthier, and the Liberty had four of their best six players unavailable – Satou Sabally started the game, but left after just 3:49 of play with an illness. The Fire have won their season series against one of the best theoretical teams in the league, but they did not play anything near the best version of that team. That said, the continuous fourth quarter performance by this team on the offensive and defensive end is genuinely telling of the Fire’s talent and skills and culture, and we should believe that this team is capable of winning big quarters against probably anyone in the league.

The game started with three quarters of tough, hard-to-come-by points and offensive struggles for both teams. Only New York scored over 20 points in any of the first three quarters, when they gained their biggest lead in the third, 57-49. It was the toughest night of the season for Bridget Carleton, who shot just 22% from the floor, including 1-of-6 from three. She managed to score 10 tough points, and has scored 10 or more in every game so far, but 10 was her lowest total yet, though her 4 free throws in the fourth quarter helped keep the game out-of-reach for New York. Luisa Geiselsöder also struggled, and has been struggling over multiple games now. She shot 22% as well on Monday, and is shooting just 33% from the field since she scored 13 points in the first win against the Liberty. Her 3-point attempts have taken a dip, and her shots closer to the basket have been harder to come by. It feels more like a cold streak and some difficulties finding a rhythm with her ever-changing point guard companions, but now that Carla Leite is back and healthy, hopefully those things trend upwards. All of that said, Geiselsöder still has the best net rating on the team, meaning the team’s most successful minutes are when Luisa is on the floor. Her defense has been very solid, her screens are successful, and her shooting ability creates a pressure on the defense that Leite, Carleton, and S.A. Barker have benefited from.

Speaking of Carla Leite, she was also struggling to shoot from deep coming into this game: she was 1-for-6 coming into Monday’s game, and didn’t even attempt a three in the previous two games she played. She missed her first three against the Liberty before getting comfortably into her mid-range and rim attack game, and shot 62.8% in the paint, a number that would be good for a tall center, and is excellent for a small guard like Leite.

The entire Fire team struggled to score, even when it was easy. Early in the first quarter, it was so bad that I started to tally shots that were basically free attempts in the paint, and should be made 90%+ of the time, and yet the Fire missed them. I counted 7 in the game, 14 points just left on the table. To make that worse, the Fire decided to start giving free points to the Liberty in the second half, fouling New York into the bonus in both the third and fourth quarters, where New York made 16-of-18 free throws in just 20 minutes. Breanna Stewart, who was the lone actor keeping New York in the game in the second half, was 11-of-13 from the charity stripe in the second half. She finished with 25 points, 7 rebounds, 0 assists, 3 steals, 1 block, and 1 turnover.

The Liberty struggled mightily as well, and most notable to me was Jonquel Jones: 3-of-11 shooting, 1-of-5 from three, 3 turnovers and 5 fouls. She did grab 11 rebounds and swat 4 shots, but she again looked frustrated and out of rhythm, just like she did in the Liberty’s first loss to Portland. Luckily, the Liberty have one of the wildest shot-makers on the planet, as Marine Johannes hit several clutch shots to keep the Liberty afloat, and even ahead, at points in the game. Every time she touches the ball, I’m screaming in terror at my television. Every time she launches a three, I’m Jesse from BREAKING BAD.

Emily Engstler helped keep the Fire close across the game by playing stellar defense: she had 4 steals and, for the second straight game, had 4 blocks in just 28 minutes of play. Only 2 other players in the history of the WNBA have had Emily’s stat line of 8+ points, 5+ rebounds, 2+ assist, 4+ steals, and 4+ blocks in 28 minutes or less: Hall of Famer Lisa Leslie, who did it twice, and the player who did it most recently in 2021: Portland Fire’s assistant coach Sylvia Fowles, who had 13p/7r/3a/4s/5b in just 20 minutes of action (...holy crap).

Luckily for Portland, when the games get messy, Sarah Ashlee Barker gets to work. SAB was 3-for-3 from the field in the second half for a team-high +9, and she hit the first big shot of the clutch fourth quarter period when Teja Oblak got blocked by Jonquel Jones: Barker got the deflection, dribbled into the far corner, pulled up for three, and nailed it, giving Portland their first lead since early in the third quarter. Did you know that SA has not missed a single corner three this season? Did you know that SA shoots 77% from the field in the 4th quarter this season? (Somehow, SA is second in the league in 4th quarter shooting behind Atlanta’s Jordin Canada, shooting 80% from the field on similar volume)

This time, when the game needed closing, it wasn’t SA coming through with the shot of the night. This time, it was Carla Leite, who has direct experience with helping expansion teams overperform and close games after playing her rookie season with the Valkyries last year. She hit her first three in over three weeks over the long reach of Breanna Stewart to seal and steal a win in New York.

Quick shoutout to Karlie Samuelson, who played in her first game with the Fire this season, and her first game 330 days since her foot injury last season. She had to learn to walk and run again, and had a long battle, and she finally reached one of her biggest finish lines. She didn’t have a massive impact on this game, but her voice has been valuable to the team, and her skills soon will be as well.

Sue Bird noted it in the post-game coverage, but the Fire’s deep subbing rotation and system of almost hockey-sub style changes is wearing other teams down and saving the Fire’s legs to finish games strong. No one played over 30 minutes, all 10 players who saw the floor played 11 or more minutes, and everyone who played scored points. Additionally, when the 4th quarter comes, the Fire have different groups that can close out the game: the starting five has been provably good this season, Sarah Ashlee Barker swaps in for Nyadiew Puoch in the clutch, and in this game, Teja Oblak swapped in when Carla Leite needed a late breather, and was solid. They have at least 7 players they trust in those scenarios right now, when I bet many other teams have less than 5.

I think there are still big problems with the quality and cohesion of Portland’s offense. Too many times the Fire brought the ball up the court, dribbled for 6 seconds, someone decided to set a screen, the ball-handler attacked with half-interest, and the play died. I know there is a looseness to the organization, and a plan to build freedom and pattern recognition that may not be there yet, but when you are struggling, and your #1 option isn’t getting the ball in their hands much, it might be time to start tracking things more closely. There was also a major lack of off-ball movement in this game for Portland, which meant Leite, Carleton, Oblak, and Barker were dribbling into coverage with no one to pass to.

The Fire are changing the narrative. They noted in the locker room that “people don’t believe in us”, and commentators everywhere are deciding that maybe they were wrong about this group. Here at Rose-Colored Buckets, we never gave ourselves reason to be down on this group. You don’t have to cling onto reasons to believe a team will be bad. You don’t need to comment online about how you are disappointed in a group of women getting their first chance at leadership and responsibility and opportunity. We know it’s going to be damn hard, and we know only one team ever wins the championship anyways. And yet, the comments persist. Let us bask, along with the Fire, in the glory of these women proving the dummies wrong.

In my preview, I predicted that Leite might have a big game, because she was pissed at how she played in Toronto, and because she doesn’t seem like the kind of person who is going to be frightened by the big lights of New York City. She has a remarkable ability to simply keep going: when she isn’t playing up to her standards, when the other team is being overtly physical, when she is undersized, when her team is down. She has a lot of heart, and she has a ton of skill. She drove past everybody for a layup to keep the lead at 2 possessions, and then she hit the dagger three, the Fire’s third iconic moment of the season.

The Fire have their first win streak of the season! (...is two wins a streak?) They place the last place Connecticut Sun, who they’ve beaten once already, at home tomorrow. Can they make it three in a row? They’d better, because a really difficult stretch of games is coming their way fast, starting this weekend. Many more big tests lie in wait. Let’s keep our rose-colored glasses on, shall we?

Have questions? Submit them through the link below, and I’ll answer them periodically!

Points per Possession - how many points a team scores for every possession they have

Effective Field-Goal Percent (eFG%) - field goal percentage with weight added to three-point shots

Turnover Percent (TOV%) - percent of possessions that ended in a turnover

Offensive Rebound Percent (OREB%) - percent of a team’s own misses that they rebounded

Free-Throw Attempt Rate (FTA Rate) - how many free throws a team takes for each Field Goal attempted