Things do be happening in Portland, and also in Chicago and Washington D.C. The Fire have gone 0-3 on a road trip in between chunks of several days off. What should we take away from the trio of anomalous games?
Let’s look at a numeric snapshot of the past three games:
Four Factors | Portland (League Rank) |
eFG% | 48.0% (12th) |
FTA Rate | .273 (11th) |
TOV% | 16.1% (9th) |
OREB% | 34.4% (3rd) |
OREB% is an interesting stat because Portland has made it a big focus of theirs, and they have improved a ton, but it is only half of the rebounding story of every game. The other half is the OREB% that you are allowing the other team to get, a.k.a. the Fire’s defensive rebounding numbers. Portland, in their last three games, is allowing an OREB% of 38.4% to opponents, which is the worst rate in the league. Part of having a good defense (which Portland does not have, right now), is not letting the opponent have multiple shots per possession. Portland is giving them away like the Moda Center crew gives free Fire tee-shirts to our section (everyone else gets as many as they want, and we get zero).
Here are some other numbers from these games:
Stat | Fire (League Rank) |
Offensive Rating | 105.7 (9th) |
Defensive Rating | 124.2 (14th) |
Net Rating | -18.5 (tied-last) |
Opponent Shooting% (Restricted Area[1]) | 73.2% (14th) |
Opponent Shooting Freq. (Restricted Area) | 32.3 shots/game (15th) |
Opponent Shooting% (3 point range) | 39.1% (12th) |
And let’s check on a few historical markers that Portland was involved in:
Gave-up the most assists in WNBA history (38) against Chicago.
Allowed the WNBA’s only 13-for-13 shooting performance from Kamilla Cardoso (same game as above)
Allowed the 4th highest Off. Rating in league history (same game as above)
Participated in the W’s second-ever 4 Overtime game against Washington
These, from ESPN: “The Mystics and Fire combined for 247 points, the second most in a game in WNBA history, including playoffs. Entering this season, there were only three instances in WNBA history where a team had scored 120 points in a game. There have been four instances this season, all in the past four days” (written June 28th).
Bridget Carleton played 51 minutes in one game, which has only occurred 16 times ever (two players in the first/only other 4OT game in 2001 [Vicky Bullett, Lauren Jackson] played every single minute – 55 out of 55 minutes 🤯).
And, since I set it up recently, let’s quickly check on the “making the playoffs” picture:
2026 is the year of my commentator curse – everything I talk about possible happening seems to happen. You can ask my commentary partner about the season we had actually doing sports commentary and our curse rate this season, our highest ever, by far. As soon as I talk about Portland’s semi-rosy playoff outlook, they lose three games against the exact teams they need to beat.
The Fire are 2.5 games from being in 8th place, a completely overcome-able range, but their strength of schedule has gotten much harder after losing the last three games to opponents who, at the time, had worse win/loss records than Portland.
20 games is a healthy sample size for analyzing the roster make-up, and I’m ready to make some sweeping statements:
Much like Alex Sarama has already said, this roster is simply going to struggle to win the rebounding battle against any other team. The most effective and controllable way to be a good rebounding team is to have players who have the physical tools to be great rebounders, and the Fire just don’t have those (at least, not while their players are playing at their current positions). S.A. Barker is a great rebounder for a guard, but she won’t overcome physically dominant centers on teams like Chicago and Washington.
It’s time to start seeing how it feels to say the following: the Fire have one of the weakest defenses. I don’t like it, but boy are the numbers stacking up (quick shoutout to the Los Angeles Sparks, who are doing their part to keep the Fire from being the stand-alone worst defense in the league). Having an opponent shoot like the Valkyries and Sky have against the Fire (eFG%’s of 59.4% and 77.2%), and giving up the 4 highest-assist games to opponents of the season? “Once is happenstance. Twice is coincidence. Three times is enemy action” - James Bond (lol sorry)
Every player is showing upside, even developmental player Jordan Harrison in their limited minutes in limited games. Zoomed in on this season, numbers remain shaky. Zooming out, looking at the mid-range future, numbers look great. Nyadiew is incrementally stepping into the type of player profile that the team wants her to be, Serah Williams is maintaining her strengths while getting better at eliminating her rookie mistakes.
Three players’ minutes continue to shrink: Teja Oblak, Karlie Samuelson, and Luisa Geiselsöder. Teja’s minutes are being split with the rookie Harrison, Karlie is taking extra rest after coming back from a long-term injury, and Lui continues to reside behind Serah Williams on the depth chart. Harrison can only play in 10 more games this season, Samuelson should hopefully get healthier, but the Geiselsöder situation could remain as-is. I continue to hope Lui gets more run, because the best version of her game is ideal for this team, but the reality of her performance this year hasn’t aligned just right yet.
The Fire continue to tinker, and have levers they can still pull to try and solve their current ailments, including a new player on a developmental contract: Sania Feagin, a 6’3” forward who is great at defending the rim, which Portland could use much more of. Check out her first practice interview in the Spare Links below.
Have a nice holiday, y’all. I’ll see you after tonight’s game in Seattle.
Glossary
Restricted Area - the area directly underneath the basket/within the semi-circle under the basket/shots from 0-3 feet away.