the Gainbridge Fieldhouse, home of the Indiana Fever
Team Profiles
Portland (2-2) | vs | Indiana (2-2) |
107.8 | Offensive Rating | 109.8 |
116.8 | Defensive Rating | 104.6 |
42.8% | 3-pt Attempt Rate | 39.1% |
24.4% | Off. Rebound % | 33.3% |
16.5% | Turnover % | 17.8% |
30.1% | FTA Rate | 27.1% |
I’m playing around with what stats to include here, so let me know if you have any interests or preferences!
Potential Starting Lineups
Portland | vs | Opponent |
Sug Sutton | G | Caitlin Clark |
Nyadiew Puoch | G/F | Kelsey Mitchell |
Bridget Carleton | G/F | Sophie Cunningham |
Emily Engstler | F | Myisha Hines-Allen |
Luisa Geiselsöder | C | Monique Billings |
Notable injuries
Portland | Chicago |
Karlie Samuelson (foot) | Aliyah Boston (lower leg) |
Carla Leite (ankle) | |
Kamiah Smalls (ankle) | |
Meg Gustafson (back) |
Game Notes
The Fire’s first ever away game! I can’t wait to hear where everyone is going to watch the game. It starts at 4:00PM PST, which means bars should have plenty of room for us to leave work early and get some happy hour deals. I’m going to try the Sports Bra, because I live very close, but I expect it could be a madhouse. I’ll find out!
This game has a lot of injury implications: the Fever’s Aliyah Boston, one of the very best young players in the league, is once again bothered by a lower leg injury that kept her out of Unrivaled this past season. The Fire have listed Carla Leite and Kamiah Smalls as questionable for the second game in a row, so Sug Sutton could start again with Holly Winterburn backing her up.
Stylistically, both teams are going to put up three’s, though notably, Indiana has given up the least 3-point attempts in the league so far. The Fire allow the best 3-point make percent in the league, which Caitlin Clark and Sophie Cunningham are going to love to see. Indiana is a good offensive rebounding team, but with Boston unavailable, those numbers should be closer to league average, which is a boon to the Fire. The Fever have undeniable top-end talent, but I think there are some advantages to Portland when both teams get into their bench units.
Opposing Players to Watch
Caitlin Clark, who we all know, I’m sure. I expect her to be defended by Nyadiew Puoch, which should be an electric matchup. Clark also has the most turnovers in the league, and could fall into some of the Fire’s high-pressure traps.
Kelsey Mitchell, who scores 23.5 points a game so far, has had a couple bad shooting nights in a row. The Fire don’t have a great defensive matchup option for Mitchell, who is potentially the fastest player in the league with the ball in her hands. She might cook.
Monique Billings, who will be one of the bigs who starts the game, is going to have a size advantage in this game, and could leverage her great rebounding skills into a double-double.
Stats to Track
Fast-break points: Caitlin Clark is the self-admitted “best transition player in the league”, and the Fire have a tendency to give away bad turnovers early in games. On the flip side, Indiana turns it over more frequently than Portland, but the Fire don’t yet have the same knack for turning those into points. This could be a big advantage for whichever team converts better.
Nyadiew Puoch fouls: Caitlin Clark draws 6.3 fouls per game, and I imagine Puoch will have the defensive assignment to start. I love the matchup for the Fire, but Puoch is new to the league, and Caitlin has a deep bag of tricks. I could see foul trouble coming early for the Aussie, and then the matchups for the Fire get much tougher.
Corner 3’s (attempts and %’s): The Fever give-up the second-best corner 3 percent in the league, and the Fire make them the third best. Can either offense funnel their shots to these high-percentage areas for the three-point mathematical advantage?
Predictions
The Fire are currently 13.5 point underdogs. The Fever had one more day off than the Fire, they are at home, but they are missing a key starter. I think this is the second game the Fire keep close against an heavy favorite this season, even if they don’t win.
With the pressure the Fire apply, and the pressure of the first road game, give me 15+ turnovers for each team. 😬
The second of a new stat line that I’m calling the E.E. (Emily Engstler): the 4x3 (3+ points, 3+ rebounds, 3+ assists, 3+ steals/blocks). Bridget Carleton had one in the Connecticut game on Monday. I’m giving prediction that Luisa Geiselsöder has a bounce-back game and gets her first E.E.
Who will win? I have no idea. That’s the beauty of sports.
Glossary
Offensive Rating | Points scored per 100 possessions |
Defensive Rating | Points allowed per 100 possessions |
3-pt Attempt Rate | % of field-goal attempts that are 3-pointers |
Off. Rebound % | % of available offensive rebounds a team secures |
Turnover % | % of turnovers per 100 possessions |
FTA Rate | Free-throw attempts per every field-goal attempt |