Barclays Center

Team Profiles

Portland (3-3)

vs

New York (3-3)

107.2

Offensive Rating

110.5

112.8

Defensive Rating

106.9

38.4%

3-pt Attempt Rate

43.6%

24.5%

Off. Rebound %

28.8%

16.8%

Turnover %

18.2%

0.297

FTA Rate

0.318

I’m playing around with what stats to include here, so let me know if you have any interests or preferences!

Potential Starting Lineups

Portland

vs

Opponent

Carla Leite

G

Sabrina Ionescu

Bridget Carleton

G/F

Marine Johannes

Nyadiew Puoch

G/F

Satou Sabally

Emily Engstler

F

Breanna Stewart

Luisa Geiselsöder

C

Jonquel Jones

Notable injuries*

Portland

New York

none

Leonie Fiebich (out, rest)

Sabrina Ionescu (questionable)

Betnijah Laney-Hamilton (out, personal)

*as of 2:00PM PST on May 25th

Game Notes

The Portland Fire are coming off one of their best games of the season, and the New York Liberty have lost two games at home in a row, both by 15 or more points. Both teams could be playing their first time in a while in which their lineups should be the same as the game before, a.k.a. no one was injured and no one is returning from injury. Both teams have big-time international players and both teams love to shoot threes. The teams have played twice already, and split those games 1-1. What is going to separate the two tonight?

The Liberty continue to get players healthy, as they are still not close to being in their final form. The shape of the Liberty’s early season is a great measuring stick for the expansion team in Portland, who plays all three games they have scheduled against New York within the first seven games.

Portland just played some of their smoothest and efficient basketball yet now that their roster looks nearly finalized. Excitingly, their injury list report is blank, which means Karlie Samuelson should be fully available to play tonight, which would be her first appearance with the Fire. Samuelson is a great three-point bucket getter, and a good cog in the offensive machine overall. The Fire, who take and make a ton of threes, surprisingly don’t have a player with the pure shot-making ability (other than Bridget Carleton) that Samuelson has shown in her career.

I think the Liberty come out really strong in this game after losing back-to-back games at home, against a team they’ve blown out once already this season, but also against a team they have lost to this season, as well.

Opposing Players to Watch

  1. Sabrina Ionescu - hopefully, we get to see Sab in the Fire’s last game against New York after she missed the beginning portion of the season. Ionescu, who had a down year offensively in 2025, is looking to bounce back with a new coach and a refreshed commitment to excellence from the rest of her team, who all felt disappointed by last year’s results.

  2. Satou Sabally - the big add to the Liberty this year, Sabally is a former Most Improved Player winner and All-Star who can score at all three levels. She had great team success last season in Phoenix, where the Mercury made the Finals, and now she moves to another championship caliber team.

  3. Pauline Astier - the french rookie carved up the Fire in the first two games these teams played. Now, she’s leading the bench unit after Ionescu returned from injury. Can Astier fight back this current version of the Fire second unit, which dominated in Toronto on Saturday?

Stats to Track

  1. Minutes played: The Portland Fire just had their first win in which no one on the roster played more than 30 minutes. The New York Liberty have two stars who are on minutes limits (Ionescu, Sabally). Portland’s first ever win against New York was the first game that the Fire stuck to their closing line-up for a long stretch of time, and it worked great. How do the minutes get spread around now that both teams are relatively healthy?

  2. Fast-Break points: Portland has been struggling to stop opponents from frequently and efficiently scoring fast-break points and points in transition/semi-transition. New York is a dynamic and deeply experienced team with a starting line-up with 5 players who can all dribble, pass, and shoot. If Portland can limit these opportunities, they will have a much better chance at grabbing another road win.

  3. Assists: Portland gives up the most assisted three-pointers in the league, and the second-most assisted two-pointers. In New York’s blowout win over Portland earlier this season, it felt like every cut was given a great pass for an easy, assisted shot. On Saturday, Portland had their best assist percentage of the season on offense. Which team is going to move the ball better, and which team is going to better disrupt the opponent? Assists will tell us.

Predictions

  1. A seemingly unshakable Fire performer has a shaky night. The Fire are about to play in one of the biggest and brightest locations in the W in the Barclays Center, where all I hear are amazing things about the environment. It will be the toughest road test yet for an expansion team, and role players typically perform worse on the road. I’m thinking the scenario could bother someone like Bridget Carleton or Sarah Ashlee Barker, who seem to produce no matter what the situation. This might be the exception that proves the rule.

  2. The Fire force 16+ turnovers. New York averages 14 turnovers per game, but with new players coming into the lineup, with a new coach and offense, and with a Fire team looking to correct their already disruptive defense, I think the Fire are going to bring a focus, and maybe a defensive wrinkle or two, and create some chaos.

  3. Carla Leite scores 15+ points. The French point-guard had a frustrating performance on Saturday, looking at her body language throughout the game. She seems to run straight at big moments without hesitation, so I think she attacks this big game hard, and makes a few alterations to her decision-making. I don’t think the Liberty have quite the right defensive matchup for a player like Leite, so there could be an opening here for a big night under the big lights.

Glossary

Offensive Rating

Points scored per 100 possessions

Defensive Rating

Points allowed per 100 possessions

3-pt Attempt Rate

% of field-goal attempts that are 3-pointers

Off. Rebound %

% of available offensive rebounds a team secures

Turnover %

% of turnovers per 100 possessions

FTA Rate

Free-throw attempts per every field-goal attempt

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