What is “Net Rating”?

Net Rating is the statistic we find ourselves with if we subtract a team’s Defensive Rating (how many points do you give up?) form their Offensive Rating (how many points do you score?). It is the difference in points per game between you and the opponent. A +15 Net Rating means your group wins games by an average margin of 15 points. If your group is a -6 Net Rating, you are losing full games by 6.

Let’s talk about some finer details: these stats (Net, Offensive, and Defensive Ratings) are calculated by points-per-100 possessions, which is an arbitrary number that was selected, I think, because the average MNBA game includes around 100 possessions. It also is a nice, whole number to round things towards.

Additionally, the version of this stat that I like the best is when you use it to compare specific lineups of players. Teams have Net Ratings, sure. But what specific groups of players are playing well? This stat is a good measure of that.

Finally, let’s talk about noise. These line-up stats are based on a small number of minutes played so far this season. The biggest sample size listed below is a four-player grouping that has played 96 minutes together so far this season. That is 2-and-a-half games, basically, and that team has completed 9 games. So, these stats are based in small samples, and then projected out over 100-possesions. When you multiply groups’ performances, you might get some wonky results.

Without any further ado, here are the best line-ups after ~10 games:

Note: I am drawing these stats with an extra filter: the lineups must have played at least 30 minutes together so far this season. After 7-10 games, we’ll want the sample size to be decently large, to filter out noisy groupings. I’ll put some wild and wacky outliers that have only played a couple of minutes together at the end of each segment.

Net Rating (Minutes Played) - Team: Players

This one is really fun because it is essentially frozen in amber. In 37 minutes, Indiana’s group here is really good, but it hasn’t played in several weeks due to Caitlin Clark’s injury. They have been a middling team in that time, but they have a (small sample size of) stat that should lead them to feel confident for the season ahead of them.

It’s also interesting to note that it is this group, and not IND’s starting five with DeWanna Bonner, that leads their team. 👀

No surprise: the W’s last surviving undefeated team’s starting five. Look at the difference in playing time for this group compared to the other four groups here. They are doing this on a much bigger scale. Also, look at the dropoff between this group and the next:

Woah, what’s this? IND has another five that are also really good, despite missing Clark!

Washington has been the surprise team of the season. There are two rookies in this group (Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen), two vets (Stefanie Dolson, Brittney Sykes), and a third-year player (Jade Melbourne). They have hung around, if not beat, everyone they’ve played against so far.

Phoenix, though now playing with future hall-of-famer Alyssa Thomas, has been super solid (third most wins in the league so far).

Outlier Leaders: 66.7 (11m) - NYL: R. Gardner, B. Stewart, J. Jones, S. Ionescu, L. Fiebich

11 minutes is basically 1 minute per game, so these are almost literally useless stats, but this team “would be beating teams 100 to 33” so far this season.

As we dip into smaller groups, we’ll see an increase in the minutes played together (less variance), and an increase in overall rating, again as the variance decreases, and each individual’s talent grows in participation.

The best record in the league has the best four-person line-up. Is it noteworthy that Natasha Cloud is not a part of the Liberty’s best 4-person lineup, her place being taken by the second year Leonie Fiebich?

Nope, it’s not weird. Cloud is in the very next best group of four. Again, Fiebich remains as Ionescu finds herself unincluded. Will she return in the third best group?

The Minnesota Lynx, who just lost their first game of the season, did not crack the top-5 for five player lineups. What gives? Likely the fact that Kayla McBride, who is have a great season, missed the first several games, so the Lynx line-ups have been rotating a lot as they started without a starter, and now have them back. They come in at number seven on the 5-player list. They come in at number three here, trailing by 0.1 points-per-100 possessions, trailing only the best team on paper in the league.

Outlier Leaders: 83.6 (11m) - Seattle: A. Clark, S. Diggins, E. Wheeler, G. Williams

How is Seattle not anywhere else on this list yet? They have been really good this season. Maybe this means they have a lot of line-up flexibility and lots of subbing patterns so far. I think we’ll see them on these lists in the near future, with more game data.

A Dallas Wings sighting! This team has been struggling, with injuries and with performance, but they have pockets of games where they are really strong. Teaira McCowan is a physical force, Tyasha Harris has started to find her role on her new team, and Maddy Siegrist is a classic ‘Nova hustler. A surprising trio to lead the league, for sure.

The Lynx find their league leading numbers with smaller groups, it seems.

Exhibit B

Outlier Leaders: 80.2 (12m) - NYL: R. Gardner, N. Cloud, S. Ionescu

80.2 points-per-game better than the opponent (!!!!!!!!!!).

Here’s the Dallas group again! I’m genuinely shocked.

Quick, name the two best players on the Atlanta Dream:

I did not name Nia Coffey or Naz Hillmon. 2/2 on surprising duos!

Okay, duos are out. Nothing makes sense anymore.

Outlier Leaders: 57.1 (18m) - NYL: I. Harrison, L. Fiebich

Isabelle Harrison’s first appearance on the list, Leonie Fiebich’s, like, 100th appearance.

One player lineups? This doesn’t really count, but let’s take a quick look anyways! These are based on playing 20 or more minutes per game, just to filter out outliers.

lol

Outlier Leader: 35.1 (11.8 m/g) - NYL: Nyara Sabally

lol

New York is good, and some bench players should play more. End of wrap-up!

One of the reasons I like this stat is because of all the noise: how many minutes is a large enough sample size to mean something? Why aren’t the two best players on the best team leading any of these groups? What do these numbers tell me about my favorite player’s actual basketball abilities?

It’s noise, noise, noise.

Look at the WNBA’s Line-up Stats for yourself!

Give players the court’s they should be playing on: