The Portland Fire are competing at a higher level than expected for an expansion team: they just won a season series (2-1) against a unanimous top-four team (the New York Liberty), they went 2-1 on their first-ever road trip (only losing against another top-four type team in the Indiana Fever), and they have won three games in a row after last night’s victory over the struggling Connecticut Sun.

But their toughest test on the schedule is about to begin: eight consecutive games against teams that are either pre-season favorites or currently looking great; they’ll face rookies of the year, the reigning MVP, the best net-rating team in the league, WNBA legends, potentially this season’s rookie of the year, they’ll play in their first back-to-back games, and more.

Let’s get a blurb on each game before making predictions, evaluations, and taking a look at other tough schedule stretches the Fire will face this season.

For reference, the Portland Fire’s net ratings are:

Things kick-off tomorrow, with a back-to-back at the Moda Center on Friday and Saturday.

Atlanta is 4-2 this season, with the 7th best net rating (+1.9). They have come back from 15 point deficits twice this season, showing a resilience that the Fire have also shown. They have 3 potential 2026 All-Stars on their team: Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray, and Angel Reese. They are big, they get a ton of shots and points in the paint, and they pose some real matchup problems for Portland.

Indiana is tied for second in the league with a 4-2 record, with the league’s 2nd best net rating (8.4), the 2nd best defensive ratings (101.2). Presumably, Caitlin Clark will be playing in this game after missing the Fire’s previous matchup last week. The Fever already smoked the Fire in Indiana, 90-73, though Portland’s roster and health statuses were much different then. This is the Fire’s first back-to-back game, which are always tough, but Portland’s deep bench rotations could help alleviate the hardship.

The Fire’s first game in Ballhalla, against last year’s expansion team that was VP’d by Portland General Manager Vanja Cernevic. It is also Carla Leit’s first game against her former/first W team after Cernevic drafted her away in the expansion draft. GS is also 4-2 this season, with the league’s best net rating (11.3). They’ve got a fierce defense, shoot a ton of three’s, and have a strong international presence just like Portland. I low-key think this could be an incredibly fun and challenging matchup for the Fire for the foreseeable future.

The Mercury are struggling in the win-loss columns, just 2-6 this season so far, but were in the Finals last season and returned a good chunk of their roster. They have the 8th best net rating (-0.2) with a good offense behind the legendary Alyssa Thomas, who is leading the league in assists right now, alongside Kah Copper and 28 year-old W rookie Jovana Nogic from Serbia, who is the best three-point shooter in the league in the early portion of the season.

The Sparks are 3-3 this season with a net rating below Portland’s, and 13th in the league, at -6.0. They are trending upwards, though, with back-to-back wins over Phoenix and Las Vegas, and they have the league’s best offensive rating and the league’s leading scorer in Kelsey Plum, scoring 26.8 points a game.

National Rose Day finds the Fire facing the defending champions and the reigning MVP. The Aces are currently 4-2 with the 5th best net rating (4.8). MVP Aja Wilson is a matchup nightmare for the Fire (and for every team) and the Aces are going to have a larger experience advantage over Portland than probably any other opponent.

Last year’s rookie of the year Paige Bueckers comes to town with Dallas, who is currently 4-3 with the 5th best net rating (4.5) behind the 2nd best offensive rating (111.4). The Wings have a bunch of new talent on the roster this season, who might really be gelling by the time they come to Portland. They have a bunch of high-scoring guards, and good front-court versatility.

The Lynx’s Olivia Miles is the rookie of the year front-runner, and has led the team to a league best 5-2 record so far. They have the 3rd best net rating (8.2) behind the 2nd best defensive rating (101.2). Natasha Howard has been excellent this season, Courtney Williams is as solid as a veteran guard can be, and Kayla McBride is a gnarly defender and three-point shooter. Even without Napheesa Collier, who will likely still be out recovering from off-season surgery, this Lynx team has proven to be good.

Each of these teams have the talent and resume to be playoff teams this season, and each would be massively disappointed if they didn’t qualify. The Aces, Fever, and Dream all have legitimate championship aspirations, and any other team here could leap into that conversation.

Fortunately, outside of the initial back-to-back, these eight games are comfortably spread out, with rest in-between. They also play five of these eight games at home, avoiding any travel hardships in this stretch.

If the Fire really are a playoff-quality team, they would win four or more of these games, given the rest and home-court advantage.

If the Fire are a good team playing at the edges of playoff contention, they would win at least three of these games.

If they are a brand new expansion team with only seven games under their belts, and only three games with their current roster construction, they might win none of them. If that were the case, their playoff chances would shrink remarkably low, though it shouldn’t completely eliminate them.

Given Portland’s fight and grit and flashes of real talent, I think they win two or three of these games.

Let’s take a quick peak ahead and see if there are any other really tough stretches this season:

They have two 4-game road trips, their longest of the season:

Tied to that road trip is a tough stretch of games: @ Minnesota, vs Dallas, @ Las Vegas, vs Indiana, vs Los Angeles, vs Toronto

To end their season, the Fire will play Golden State 3 times within 5 tough games (vs GS, vs Phoenix, @ GS, @ Los Angeles, vs GS).

That is a tough way to potentially make a push for the post-season.

But, of course, this is a lot of “getting ahead of ourselves”. Some of these currently good teams could see declines, and any team not included in these groups could become a surprise contender. I’m working on a “path to the playoffs” piece with some more scheduling potentials that I hope to finish during this upcoming eight game stretch, where we can play more what-ifs.

I’ll see you this weekend for the double-header.

Net-Rating - how many points a team scores per 100 possessions compared to how many they allow per 100 possessions

Offensive Rating - how many points a team scores per 100 possessions

Defensive Rating - how many points a team allows per 100 possessions