Portland has just wrapped up the hardest stretch of their season, concluding with a blowout loss in Minnesota. They have played the most games in the league, and have said that they have had the least amount of practices in the league (not a thing I can personally track/verify).

And now, they start a stretch of games against much weaker opponents, and get two big chunks of rest. How will this stretch of the season change their outlook?

Let’s get a blurb on each game before making predictions, evaluations, and taking a look at other easier schedule stretches the Fire will face this season.

For reference, the Portland Fire’s net ratings are:

Record: 7-9 (10th)

Total: -7.9 (13th)

Offense: 103.4 (10th)

Defense: 111.3 (15th)

The Portland vs Seattle rivalry gets a breath of fresh air with the WNBA’s return to Portland, and it starts tonight!

Seattle is in 14th place with a net rating of -8.6. They have the worst offensive rating in the league (96.2) but the 7th best defensive rating (104.8) with feisty perimeter defenders and a ton of length near the rim in Dominique Malonga and rookie Awa Fam, the two most exciting bigs in the league right now. They have an interesting mix of youth and experience, just like the Fire, but have yet to prove they can reach the same heights that Portland can. I hope to write a ton about this in the future, but the Portland vs Seattle WNBA rivalry is set-up to be fierce, close, and exciting for literally years to come.

Seattle is the only team to have less offensive rebounds per game than Portland. They make the least field goals per game, they throw the least assists per game, and they have the worst FG% in the league.

The most rest the team has had all season. Before this break, they’ve had two 3 day breaks, the most recent of which inspired everyone the press talked to to rave about being able to participate in practice again. The only bigger break will be the league-wide break for the FIBA World Cup, which Fire players will be participating in, so they won’t have as much whole-team time as they do here.

The Fire lost to Chicago in their very first game, and the Sky looked solid in that one. Ever since their first week, however, Chicago has been sliding. They lost Rickea Jackson to an ACL tear, they’ve had stretches of bad performances and player quotes that are not inspiring confidence. They sit at 12th in the standings with 12th best net rating (-6.5), and like Seattle, have a better defense (8th in def. rating) than offense (13th in off. rating). They are also the worst rebounding team in the league, one of two teams that rate worse than Portland, but get the most blocks per game.

They still have way more veteran experience than Portland, and are playing at home, but they trended downward while Portland has trended upwards.

The second, and last, time the Fire will play the same opponent twice in a row. The first was at home, against the Liberty, and this one is on the road. This will be a fun showcase for short-term adjustments the Fire are capable of, just like they would face in a playoff series.

Portland’s first game against the Mystics, who are currently at 11th in the standings with the 11th best net rating (-6.4), and have played the least amount of games in the league. They are the youngest team in the league, with 11 (!!!) rookies or sophomores on the roster. Their oldest player, Michaela Onyenwere, turns 27 in August. They are pesky, they are talented, but they are raw. 

Like every team so far, their defense (106.7, 9th) rates better than their offense (100.3, 12th). They take the most free-throws per game in the league (Portland takes the least free-throws per game), but they only make them at 73.9%, the second worst rate in the league. Washington also gives the most turnovers per game in the league, one of two teams worse than Portland so far.

The second-biggest break the Fire will have this season, and it comes shortly after their biggest real break, and after three winnable games. This is great timing. They will have another five day break in late July.

After a series of winnable road games and a big break, the Fire take their first trip to Seattle. I expect the crowd to be electric, and I expect both teams to look different than they do in today’s game to start this whole stretch of games.

This 5-game stretch is mostly a road trip for the Fire, adding in some hardship, but the opponents will never have these low of ratings again in a 5-game span. They return home after this series of games to play the Aces, the defending champions, though they did play Las Vegas really well at home last week…

The only other stretch of games that includes mostly teams in the bottom-half of the (current) standings involves some better teams, and less rest:

Starting August 2nd: vs Los Angeles, vs Toronto, vs Seattle, vs Minnesota (eek), @ Seattle, @ Phoenix, @ Toronto, vs Washington (8 games in 22 days)

This stretch of games right now, then that August stretch of 8 games, are going to have the biggest playoff implications of the season for the Fire. They have to beat teams in the bottom half of the league to get in; they don’t necessarily have to beat the best of the best. According to Tankathon, the Fire have the 3rd easiest schedule during the rest of this season. I will draw up a “here’s what needs to happen” post during the six-day break we have from Fire games starting tomorrow.

Until then: **** Seattle.

Net-Rating - how many points a team scores per 100 possessions compared to how many they allow per 100 possessions

Offensive Rating - how many points a team scores per 100 possessions

Defensive Rating - how many points a team allows per 100 possessions